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Grecia, dopo la cura del memorandum

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Dal 2014, la stretta imposta dalla troika alla Grecia è stata impressionante. Si è passati da un deficit massimo del 15,1% nel 2009 ad un avanzo complessivo (dopo aver pagato gli interessi passivi) del +0,7% nel 2016.

EUROSTAT – Deficit/Pil

...................2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Italia...........-1,5..-2,7...-5,3..-4,2…-3,5..-2,9...-2,9...-3,0..-2,6...-2,4

Francia…...-2,5..-3,2...-7,2...-6,8...-5,1..-4,8...-4,0...-4,0..-3,5...-3,4

Spagna…...+2,0..-4,4.-11,0..-9.4…-9,6.-10,4..-6,9...-5,9..-5,1...-4,5

Gran Br…...-3,0..-5,0.-10,7..-9,6...-7,7...-8,3...-5,6...-5,6..-4,4..-3,0

Germania...+0,2..-0,2..-3,2...-4,2...-1,0...-0,1...-0,1...+0,3.+0,7.+0,8

Olanda …..+0,2..+0,2..-5,4..-5.0...-4,3…-3,9..-2,4...-2,3..-2,1..+0,4

Grecia…….-6,7.-10,2.-15,1.-11,2.-10,3..-8,9.-13,1..-3,7...-5,9..+0,7


Il tasso di disoccupazione è calato, ma è ancora superiore al 20%.

Le misure di austerità imposte dalla troika (tagli ripetuti dei salari e delle pensioni, aumento delle imposte e tasse, riduzioni di agevolazioni fiscali, ecc.) sono state controbilanciate da misure sociali, il governo Tsipras, ad esempio:

- ha introdotto il reddito sociale di solidarietà, ovvero un reddito minimo di 200 euro garantito già a 600.000 persone;

- ha reintrodotto nel sistema sanitario, due milioni e mezzo di cittadini greci (in precedenza chi perdeva il lavoro perdeva ogni forma di assicurazione sanitaria) oltre agli immigrati;

- è riuscito a riallacciare la corrente a 90.000 famiglie;

- ha impedito gli sfratti per gli affittuari insolventi pagando da 70 a 120 euro al mese ai proprietari degli immobili; e

- ha offerto un servizio mensa gratuito a 500.000 bambini delle scuole elementari dei quartieri più colpiti dalla crisi.


Dando uno sguardo all’indietro, va rimarcato, a mio avviso, anche:

- l'aspetto finanziario-economico, con, da una parte, il coinvolgimento per un importo significativo (86 mld) del MES (che, rammento, si somma a 2 precedenti salvataggi), non contemplato negli accordi precedenti; l'irrobustimento delle banche e l'alleggerimento del servizio del debito (tassi e scadenze) e, dall'altra, un corposo piano per la crescita (i 12,5 mld del fondo di garanzia di 50 mld, che è un’altra novità rispetto al testo precedente, e soprattutto i 35 mld di finanziamenti UE);[1]


Ecco il quadro dell'alleggerimento del servizio del debito (tassi e scadenze) per la Grecia grazie al memorandum accettato da Tsipras ed agli aiuti UE, con un’analisi comparativa tra gli stessi Paesi esaminati nella tabella precedente relativa al deficit/Pil.

BANCA D’ITALIA – Statistiche di finanza pubblica nei paesi dell’Unione europea - Spesa per interessi (in percentuale del PIL) Tav. 16

...................2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Italia............4,8…4,9…4,4...4,3…4,7…5,2…4,8…4,6…4,1…4,0

Francia…....2,6…2,8…2,4…2,4…2,6…2,6…2,3…2,2…2,0…1,9

Spagna…....1,6…1,5…1,7…1,9…2,5…3,0…3,5…3,5…3,1…2,8

Gran Br…...2,2…2,2…1,9…2,9…3,2…2,9…2,9…2,7…2,3…2,5

Germania....2,7…2,7…2,6…2,5…2,5…2,3…2,0…1,8…1,6…1,4

Olanda….…2,0…2,0…2,0…1,8…1,8…1,6…1,5…1,4…1,3…1,1

Grecia…….4,5…4,8…5,0...5,9…7,3….5,1…4,0…4,0…3,6…3,2

Grecia. L’incidenza % degli interessi sul Pil è influenzata dal valore del debito pubblico (che per la Grecia è sensibilmente cresciuto), dai tassi (che si sono più che dimezzati) e dal valore del denominatore-Pil (che è diminuito). L’effetto combinato di questi tre fattori (di segno opposto) ha portato al più che dimezzamento dell’incidenza della spesa per interessi sul Pil rispetto al picco del 2011 (3,2 contro 7,3).

Italia. Nello stesso periodo, l’incidenza % della spesa per interessi dell’Italia - che dal marzo 2015, a differenza della Grecia, ha potuto beneficiare del calo dei tassi grazie al QE, ma non ha beneficiato di aiuti UE, anzi è contributrice netta dei vari fondi salva-Stato (60 mld), oltre alla sua quota di prestiti tramite la BCE (17%, considerando solo i Paesi Eurozona) -, è diminuita, per effetto degli stessi fattori di segno opposto (il debito pubblico è cresciuto, i tassi sono diminuiti e il denominatore-Pil è calato di circa il 10%), dal valore massimo nel 2012 del 5,2 al 4 nel 2016 (che è il valore record in UE dopo il Portogallo), cioè in misura inferiore a quella della Grecia.


_______________________________

Note:

[1] L’accordo UE-Grecia non è stato una débacle per Tsipras



Post e articoli collegati:


Grecia, la lingua biforcuta non solo dei levantini ma anche dei nordici dell’UE


Il dettaglio dell’accordo tra Grecia e creditori

ARGIRIS PANAGOPOULOS IL 2 MAGGIO 2017


09.05.17

Raggiunto un nuovo accordo tra governo greco e troika: garantirà risorse fondamentali per ripagare debiti in scadenza. Il prossimo passo sarà la difficile trattativa sulla riduzione del debito. Ma non esistono scorciatoie per la soluzione delle crisi.


Eurogruppo, 15.6.2017

Grecia

L'Eurogruppo ha concluso le discussioni sul secondo riesame, attualmente in corso, del programma di aggiustamento macroeconomico della Grecia finanziato dal meccanismo europeo di stabilità.



**********




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Timberland 6867R Hight Cut Boots Man sneaker shoes blue Timberland 6867R Hight Cut Boots Man sneaker shoes blue $298.00   $134.00 Save: 55% off ... more info
Timberland 6867R Hight Cut Boots Man sneaker shoes brown Timberland 6867R Hight Cut Boots Man sneaker shoes brown $300.00   $127.00 Save: 58% off ... more info
Timberland 6867R Hight Cut Boots Man sneaker shoes Green Timberland 6867R Hight Cut Boots Man sneaker shoes Green $287.00   $125.00 Save

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